WR: Do's and Don'ts

Khaled Zaher - NextPlay Sports
The NFL has changed to a pass first league. Just in the last 5 years we have seen quarterback passing yardage records and passing touchdown records get shuddered. It isn’t crazy to see quarterbacks to throw for over 4,000 yards and even 5,000 yards in a season. It has become normal to see quarterbacks throw for 35 touchdowns or more in a season, 5 quarterbacks did it last and Russel Wilson threw 34. All this is to show that it is great to be a wide receiver in the NFL right now.

Just like we did with quarterbacks and running backs, I am going to give you the Do and Don’ts when approaching the wide receiver position in Fantasy football. I am going to skip the “know your league scoring system” section because by now hopefully you have read the other articles and know the importance in knowing it.

Do Draft Wide Receiver in First Round.

• This is “Not your father’s fantasy league”, it wasn’t that long when it was crazy to take a wide receiver in the 1st round. Now this year up to 6 receivers could go in your fantasy football league’s 1st round especially in PPR leagues. The tier one of wide receivers is outstanding this year led by Antonio Brown. I can’t argue against taking Brown 1st overall in your fantasy draft and would recommend it in PPR leagues. I think Brown is the safest pick in fantasy this year and his past performances of being top 4 in all time receptions in a season and top 8 in receiving yard of all time the past two years show his upside this year. During those seasons he has been the first player in almost a decade to finish back to back seasons as the number one wide receiver in fantasy. After Brown the talent doesn’t drop off, ODB, Julio, Green, Dez and Hopkins could all end the season as the number one wide receiver in fantasy and will be beast for your fantasy teams so don’t be afraid to go get one of them in the 1st round.
  

Don’t think Wide Receivers don’t Bust.

• Bust is the last thing you want to hear when talking early round fantasy players. Last year was devastating for early running back busts because of injuries and poor play. Many people think wide receivers are safe and will not bust at the rate that running backs bust but this isn’t true. Fantasy experts have been able to show evidence that over the past 5 years top average drafted running backs and wide receivers are almost identical. Research shows that 49%(55% before 2015) of the time early drafted RB1s where able to be RB1s at the end of the season and 69%(72% before 2015) where able to be at least RB2s. Wide receivers have very similar numbers with 53% of early drafted WR1s where able to remain WR1s at the end of the season and 70% where able to be at least WR2s.
  

Do Start Wide Receivers in Flex.

• In PPR this should be a given but in standard scoring leagues you should do the same. There are exceptions to every rule but trying to find a good wide receiver for your flex is much easier than finding a 3rd startable running back. Wide receiver is deep most years and this year is no exception with many number 2 and even number 3 receivers in team offenses adding to the pool and being startable for fantasy lineups weekly.

Don’t Wait Too Long to Take Your WR1.

• The wide receiver position is deep but getting your WR1 is crucial to your fantasy season. This doesn’t mean you have to reach for one in the 1st round after the first 6 are gone, you can get 75%-80% of production of what the 1st round wide receivers will put out in the 2nd and even 3rd round of draft.  After the 3rd round there is a serious drop off of upside potential production from the wide receivers because of the drop off I recommend to draft your first wide receiver no later than the 3rd round of drafts.

Do Draft Wide Receivers with Great Quarterbacks.

• When deciding between wide receivers during a draft, talent of the wide receiver should be highest on the list of influential reasons to draft a player but situation/quarterback play should be a close second. When you feel similar about a couple wide receivers look at their quarterback and if he is Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc pick that player over an unproven quarterback. When ranking and drafting wide receivers quarterback situation should be the tie breaker for receivers in your draft.
  

Don’t Draft Desean Jackson as a WR2

• Desean Jackson is the definition of a boom or bust type player in fantasy football. When healthy last year Jackson made a huge difference for Washington’s offense and was able to have four double digit fantasy points games out of eight but wasn’t over 5 points in the other four. If you drafted him last year in the 4th-5th round you were disappointed because he missed the first 7 games because of injury. Jackson is a boom or bust flex option in fantasy, he just isn’t consistent enough to be a WR2. The Achilles injury to 1st round pick Doctson and Garson’s loss of ability might push up Jackson’s ADP and your league mates might start to reach for him in the similar range as last year resulting in disappointment again.
  

Do Start Second Wide Receivers in Good Offenses.

• Eric Decker, Allen Hurns, Martavis Bryant, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Crabtree, John Brown. All were second receivers in productive offenses last year and all were fantasy starters over many number one receivers on other teams. This isn’t anything new for Sanders and Decker to be production wide receivers as the 2nd option in the receiving core and Bryant, Crabtree and Brown have all shown how talented they are. Do not be afraid to draft and start these type of player for fantasy football.
  • P.S. Don’t draft Martavis Bryant he is suspended for the year. Was just using him as an example.
    

Don’t be afraid of Josh Gordon.

• His problem has been widely discussed but the talent cannot be argued. His 2014 production wasn’t anything to get excited about and he was suspended for all of last season. He starts this season with a 4 game suspension and hasn’t been constantly on the field for over a year. Sounds like I am trying to tell you not to draft him in your leagues but I think you should. I am a Josh Gordon fan but how could you blame me after having him on my team during his 2013 explosion with the Browns. He was suspended the 1st two games that season and still finished as the number 2 overall wide receiver in fantasy that year. As long as his ADP stays around the 6th and 7th round I love the value and upside of the player. He won’t be drafted as your starter (more your first bench player) and obviously has better upside then anyone drafted around that ADP. He is totally worth the gamble in the mid rounds and could result in a star for your fantasy team.
  

Do Take at Least One Late Flyer on the Wide Receiver Position.

• Once you get your starters and backups instead of getting a 2nd tight end or an older name guy go ahead and take a flier at wide receiver with high potential. Take a wide receiver with talent you really like, situation you really like, talented quarterback’s 3rd receiver, or player you liked in college. The results of this strategy could result in;
  • If the wide receiver does nothing in a couple weeks it’s an easy cut for a waiver wire player
  • The player could be potential trade bait
  • Could replace your starter at WR or Flex
  • Be a valuable bench/bye week player

Don’t Overvalue this year’s` Rookie Class of Wide Receivers.

• Sense 2014’s incredible rookie class of receivers the rookie wide receiver has been overvalued in fantasy drafts. Last season the production for rookie receivers weren’t near as good as in 2014. Amari Cooper was drafted in the mid rounds last year and finished the season as a low end WR2 for fantasy teams ranking 24th in total points at the end of the season and 8.8 points per game in none PPR leagues. Try guessing last year’s number 2 rookie wide receiver, that’s correct Vikings Stefon Diggs. This year Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Will Fuller were all 1st round picks but none of them should be more than WR4s for your teams. Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd and Malcom Mitchel are all rookie receivers to keep an eye that were taking in 2nd round or later that could be late round sleepers but shouldn’t be any more than late round fliers at the position. Maybe one or two rookie wide receivers will be fantasy starters for teams this year but you shouldn’t reach for one because of the price it might take to get some of the upper end named guys.